Predictions
What predictions are
A prediction is a question with a Yes or No answer: “Will BTC close above this price on Friday?”, “Will this team win the match?”. You buy shares of the side you think will be right. When the market resolves, each share of the winning side pays $1, and shares of the losing side pay nothing.
How to read the price
Section titled “How to read the price”A side’s price is between $0 and $1, and it reads as the probability the market gives it. If Yes costs $0.62, the market gives it a 62% chance, and the app writes it that way: Yes · 62%.
- Buy Yes at $0.62 and it wins: each share pays you $1, so you make $0.38 a share before fees.
- If it loses, each share is worth 0.
- Yes and No add up to roughly $1. The gap either way is the difference between buyers and sellers.
The price moves while the market is open. You do not have to wait for the result: you can sell before, at that moment’s price, at a gain or a loss. See Buying and selling.
Some markets have more than two answers, like a match or an election with several candidates. Each option is its own Yes and No, and the market’s page lists them under Options.
Where to find them
Section titled “Where to find them”- Neobank bar: Invest → Predictions.
- Exchange bar: the Predictions tab.
- On the web: the predictions page. See The web app.
The list shows one card per market: the question, both sides with their probability and, under each, what you pay at the minimum and what you would get if it wins (“$10.00 → $11.00”). It also shows how much was traded today and when it resolves.
The filter button opens Prediction filters: Venue (All, Hyperliquid or Polymarket), Category (Crypto, Markets, Economics, Sports, Politics and others, depending on what is open) and Sort (Most money in play, Resolving soonest, Biggest move today).
A market’s page
Section titled “A market’s page”Tap a card to open it. You will see:
- Chance: how the price of Yes has moved over time.
- Resolves and the date, in your time zone.
- Traded today, Liquidity and Minimum.
- How it resolves: the market’s exact rule, when the venue publishes one. Read it before going in: the title sums up the question, but the rule decides it.
- Two buttons with each side’s price, for example Yes · 62% and No · 38%. In a match, each team’s name instead of Yes and No.
Hyperliquid and Polymarket
Section titled “Hyperliquid and Polymarket”Every shows predictions from two places. They look the same, but they work differently underneath.
| Hyperliquid | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| What pays for it | Your cash on Hyperliquid | Your wallet; the app moves it to Polymarket when you buy |
| Minimum to buy | $10, in whole shares | Set by each market, in shares; the page shows Minimum |
| The order | Fills at once or not at all | Can wait for its price (Order placed) |
| Collecting if you win | Arrives on its own | Not collected from Every today: see Resolution and payout |
| Where it is offered | Everywhere Every is | Only where Polymarket can be used |
Each one’s fees are in Buying and selling.
Where Polymarket can be used
Section titled “Where Polymarket can be used”Polymarket is not offered in every country. The app asks Polymarket from your phone, when it opens and every time you come back to it or get your connection back, whether trading is allowed where you are. Polymarket sees your connection’s IP address to answer.
- If it is allowed, you see Hyperliquid’s predictions and Polymarket’s.
- If it is not, you see only Hyperliquid’s. In the filter, the Polymarket option is off and says “Polymarket isn’t available where you are.”
- If the check gets no answer, the app does not take the chance: no Polymarket, and it says so (“We couldn’t check whether Polymarket is available from here.”).
Today Polymarket is not offered for new predictions in: Argentina, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo - Kinshasa, Cuba, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Myanmar (Burma), Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, North Korea, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Slovakia, Somalia, South Korea, South Sudan, Spain, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, U.S. Outlying Islands, United Kingdom, United States, Venezuela, Yemen, and Zimbabwe; nor in some regions of Canada and Ukraine. The list is Polymarket’s, plus Spain, which is our own decision.
If you already held predictions on Polymarket and you are in one of those places, they still count in your balance, and the Polymarket money that is not in any prediction can be moved to your wallet. What you cannot do is open new ones.